What Brazil’s 25 October Runoff Means for Expats

Brazil’s first round ended with Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula. The runoff on 25 October will decide who governs from January 2027.

What Happened on Sunday

Brazil voted on Sunday 4 October 2026. About 158 million citizens were registered to vote. Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) came first, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) came second.

Rádio Senado reports about 56 million votes for Bolsonaro and about 54 million for Lula. Reuters, with 99.95% of polling sections counted, gave 47.04% and 45.15% of valid votes, a gap of about 2.3 million votes. Valid votes exclude blank and null ballots. Other outlets show slightly different shares, so the TSE’s final tally is the reference.

Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema finished third to sixth, according to Rádio Senado. More than 33 million registered voters did not vote.

File photo: bank offices in São Paulo. (The Rio Times archive)

Why This Was a Surprise

Major pollsters, including Quaest and Datafolha, had Lula ahead before the vote, according to Reuters. The result therefore moved opinion about who is favoured. Some analysts now see Bolsonaro as the favourite for 25 October.

That is one view, not a forecast we share. Polls missed the first round, and a runoff is a different contest: voters of the eliminated candidates choose between two names. Campaigning restarts on Monday. Bolsonaro called the result the end of the PT era, according to Reuters.

How Markets Reacted

Brazil’s own markets were closed on Sunday. In US after-hours trading, the EWZ fund, which tracks Brazilian stocks, rose between 7% and 10% depending on the moment, according to InfoMoney and Exame. Petrobras and Vale shares listed in the US rose about 5%. Brazilian markets react on Monday, and we do not yet know how far the first move holds.

For context, the central bank’s PTAX reference rate (the official dollar rate) was 5.2238 reais per dollar on Friday 2 October. R$1,000 is about US$191 at that rate. Currencies often overshoot on a political surprise and then settle. The next Copom meeting, which sets the Selic rate (Brazil’s benchmark interest rate), is on 3 and 4 November, after the runoff.

What This Means for Foreign Residents

Residency and visas. Only citizens vote, so foreigners have no ballot. The vote itself changes no visa rule. Any later policy change would need new decisions after the January 2027 inauguration.

Money. If you move money into or out of Brazil in the next three weeks, expect larger daily swings in the real. Splitting a large transfer into steps is a common way to reduce timing risk, but that is a personal choice.

Daily life. Expect more campaign events and media noise until 25 October. On that Sunday, polling places in schools can bring traffic and noise nearby.

The other direction. A calm campaign and a clear result on 25 October would end the uncertainty quickly. A very close result could keep it going for days.

What Is Not Yet Known

We do not know how the voters of the four eliminated candidates will split, or how the real and Brazilian stocks trade once local markets open. The TSE’s final first-round tally also still has to be published in full.

More on Brazil: Brazil hub. Related coverage: today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide, Flávio and Lula Head to Brazil Runoff, 99.9% Counted and What Brazil’s Election Means for US Investors.