Pollsters have long predicted a right-wing victory in Spain’s next general election. Almost a month away from the big day, polls reflect changes to voter intention following several weeks of housing protests and planned strikes.
We’re now almost exactly a month away from Spain’s snap general election on November 29th.
Pollsters have long put the right-wing bloc on course to oust leftist PM Pedro Sánchez, with the opposition centre-right Partido Popular (PP) likely falling short of an absolute majority and needing far-right Vox to govern.
But since Sánchez called the snap election spurred by housing protests, what’s happened in the polls and what do the pollsters predict?
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Despite almost all polls putting the PP and Vox on course to win a governable majority, there is some early evidence of an (admittedly small) PSOE fightback amid a slight decline in PP voting intention.
The PP remains in first place for (almost) all pollsters, but does seem to be trending downwards slightly and is losing ground whilst the PSOE and Vox are improving their share of the vote.
Several newer polls, including the new NC Report poll for right-leaning newspaper La Razón, shows the PP vote falling.
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NC report puts the PP’s seat count at between 141 and 143, five fewer at either end of the range than the 146–148 predicted in the poll published in early October.
The Socialists’ growth narrows the gap between the two main parties, but Vox’s significant gains (most polls have the party doubling its number of seats) would maintain a right-wing majority of between 205 and 209 seats.
The most recent poll, carried out between 22nd and 24th October, puts the PP at 32.9 percent, down from the previous 34.1 per cent. Its lead over the PSOE has narrowed from 9.1 to 7.1 points: a reduction of two points.
CIS
Let’s begin first with Spain’s most anomalous pollster, the state-run Centre for Sociological Research (CIS). It’s important to note that the CIS is the only poll that has consistently had the Socialists (PSOE) ahead and as a result should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.
The October poll by the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) gives the PSOE an estimated 34 percent of the vote, three points more than the same survey in September.
The PP would secure 22.2 percent of the vote, and Vox, as the third-largest party, 17.1 percent.
The gap between the two leading parties would rise to 11.8 points in favour of the PSOE — far from the averages of all other polls.
As you’ll see, however, these results are very out of keeping with the rest of the polling companies.
GAD3
Polling carried out by GAD3 for right-wing newspaper ABC paints a different picture more in line with other pollsters.
The PP would take 31.4 percent of the vote and 133 seats, whilst the PSOE would secure 26.4 percent and 107 MPs. Vox, once again the third-largest party, stands at 18.2 percent, with 65 seats, ensuring the right-wing majority.
The leftist bloc (in other words, those parties to the left of PSOE) accounted for the remaining seats and 11.2 percent of the vote, including parties such as Podemos, the PNV, Esquerra Republicana and Adelante Andalucía.
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Sigma Dos
The recent Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo also places the PP as the leading party, at 33.9 percent of the vote and 135 seats. The PSOE would secure 25.3 percent and 103 seats, whilst Vox would reach 19.1 percent and 68 seats.
40dB
Polling by 40dB for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER placed the PP at 31.9 percent of the estimated vote, compared with 28.1 percent for the PSOE.
Vox would reached 18.9 percent, whilst Frente Amplio obtained 5.3 percent and Podemos stood at 2.3 percent.
SocioMétrica
The poll by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL also places the PP in the lead.
The PP secures 32.6 percent, compared with 26.2 percent for the PSOE, a difference of 6.4 points.
Seat projection puts the PP at 141 MPs and the PSOE at 104. Vox would secure 64 seats.
The parliamentary scenario outlined by the poll also gives the PP and Vox 205 seats, 29 above an absolute majority.
This figure has barely changed since the September estimate, when the polling firm GAD3 calculated 207 seats for both parties (145 for the PP and 62 for Vox).
Politico’s poll of polls
The ‘poll of polls’ average put together by Politico is a useful tool to mark how voting intention has changed over time and getting a handle on the macro data.
If we zoom out slightly and look at the six-month average, we can see that the average poll numbers are more or less where the more recent Spanish pollsters are now, albeit with some very slight dips in PP vote shore by some.
According to Politico’s poll, the PP will win around 32 percent, followed by the PSOE on 26 percent, Vox on 19 percent, and the leftist bloc Frente Amplio on 7 percent.
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