El Niño drives record-late Atlantic hurricane season
More than halfway through the Atlantic season, no hurricanes have been reported yet — a record late start.
The latest first hurricane of the season was on Sept. 11 in both 2002 and 2013. As of Sept. 15, there had just been five named tropical storms over the Atlantic. The lower-than-average number of storms is likely due to the El Niño event gearing up in the Pacific Ocean.
The peak of Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, according to NOAA. On average, four hurricanes would have occurred by Sept. 16 and two major hurricanes by Sept. 19.
Both El Niño and La Niña can impact hurricane season. For the hurricanes over the Pacific, there can be fewer hurricanes during a La Niña and more during an El Niño. The opposite is true for the Atlantic hurricane season.
This year, an El Niño event is in progress, bringing warm temperature anomalies to the Pacific Ocean. It occurs when there is a sea surface temperature anomaly of more than 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive three-month periods. The reverse, called La Niña, exists when the sea surface temperature is colder than average.
The weekly temperature anomaly just hit 2 degrees Celsius — the threshold for a “very strong” El Niño.
Here’s a look at how many tropical storms have occurred so far this year.
Atlantic hurricane season
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 through Nov. 30. At more than halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season, there have been five named tropical storms. None of the storms have progressed into a hurricane.
This is on track with NOAA’s prediction, which was that there is a 75% chance of lower-than-normal activity during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA predicts between seven and 13 named storms, including two to six that could become hurricanes. The agency also predicted between zero and two major hurricanes for the season.
On average, the hurricane season over the Atlantic produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes. There are three major hurricanes on average.
Earlier in August, NOAA reinforced its below-normal prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, citing the El Niño event for 2026.
Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane season over the eastern Pacific lasts slightly longer, starting on May 15 and going through Nov. 30.
NOAA predicts enhanced storm activity because of the El Niño event this year, predicting an above-average 15 to 22 named storms for the season. So far, there have been 14 named storms, including four hurricanes.
Two of these were major hurricanes — Hurricane Genevieve and Hurricane Karina. There was another active major hurricane that originated in the eastern Pacific Ocean and reached its peak intensity as a category 5 hurricane in the central Pacific Ocean — Hurricane Lowell.
The last time there was a “very strong” El Niño, there were a record three Category 4 hurricanes that occurred at the same time over the Pacific Ocean.