Progress isn’t linear for any prospect, but that’s especially true for pitchers. Injuries are just a fact of life when it comes to young pitchers, and guys will occasionally go through stretches where they just completely lose the ability to throw strikes or lose their feel for certain pitches even when healthy.
In Andrew Painter’s case, it was a bit of an all-of-the-above situation. His career was derailed by an elbow injury just as it looked like he was about to make his MLB debut, and after two completely lost seasons, he came back from Tommy John surgery in 2025 and wasn’t anywhere close to the same pitcher he was before the injury. Specifically, he went from having what was widely considered to be a plus fastball to having a pretty terrible one, and it led to a 5.26 ERA in Triple-A last season.
And he wasn’t any better this season. Despite breaking camp with the Phillies, Painter’s fastball continued to be an issue and he was sent back down to Triple-A in mid-June with a 7.06 ERA. He went back down to the minors and continued to look pretty uninspiring, but a funny thing has happened in his past few starts since returning: He’s starting to look like the pre-injury version of himself. You know, the one who was arguably the best pitching prospect in the game.
We saw the absolute best version of Painter Saturday against the Cardinals, as he carved them up for eight strikeouts while allowing just one hit in seven innings. But it wasn’t just the results that were worth getting excited about; it was how Painter actually pitched. Specifically, it was the fastball, which generated five swinging strikes on 15 swings, while sitting up at 97.3 mph on average and, most notably, generated two more inches of induced vertical break than his season average.
That’s no small thing; it takes Painter’s fastball from a pretty mediocre shape to a very good one and helps explain why he suddenly started missing bats with the pitch. On the whole, Painter generated 20 swinging strikes in the start, led by his changeup, a new pitch Painter brought out in Triple-A after shelving his splitter.
That changeup has looked solid since he came back, but it’s the fastball that really stands out as a potential difference maker for Painter. For the most part this season, the only path to success for Painter seemed to be through limiting his fastball usage, as that pitch had a whiff rate around 10% and tended to get clobbered. It was a bad pitch, and if you have a bad fastball, it’s hard to hide absent exceptional command of the rest of the arsenal.
It’s way too early to declare that Painter’s four-seamer is suddenly a weapon. We’re dealing with a sample size of just a couple of starts with better movement on the pitch, and a single start where he actually went out on the mound and dominated. That isn’t nearly enough to change how we feel about any pitcher, especially one with as limited a track record of success at either Triple-A or the majors as Painter has.
But Painter’s talent has never been in question, and if he’s now figuring out how to maximize it, he could be very interesting. I’m not ready to say Painter needs to be active in your lineup every week the rest of the way, or even that he’s a must-add pitcher in all leagues. But I do think if you’re looking for someone with upside on the wire, he’s about as good as they come right now, and he should probably be the top priority in any league when waivers run this week.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add heading into Week 23.
Week 23 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (47%)
Stephenson is hitting .253/.333/.527 with a 30-plus homer pace since the All-Star break, and with a .371 expected wOBA in that span, he has the underlying numbers to back it up. Stephenson has long been a fringe top-12 catcher, and even in the deeper state of the position in 2026, he’s not a bad one, even if he’s generally more “good enough” than a true difference-maker. But that’s a nice floor for a guy who is this hot right now.
Deep league option: Rafael Flores, Pirates (21%) – There’s an awful lot of swing-and-miss in Flores’ game right now, but you can overcome that by just mashing the ball, and that’s certainly what he’s doing right now. Since the start of August, he is hitting .268/.333/.659 and while his underlying numbers don’t entirely back it up, his 91.4 mph average exit velocity in that span is a sign that the power is real, at least. He’s a fine upside play for your No. 2 catcher spot right now.
First Base
Abimelec Ortiz, Nationals (41%)
The biggest thing holding Ortiz back right now is the fact that the Nationals are treating him like a true platoon player, with just five of his 60 plate appearances coming against lefties. But he’s absolutely crushing righties right now, with a .250/.291/.577 line and five homers in 55 trips to the plate. He makes enough contact, hits the ball hard, and elevates it well, all skills that are going to keep Ortiz relevant even if his upside is limited by the role right now. That makes him more of a corner infield option than a 1B in most Fantasy leagues, but that’s still worth chasing.
Deep league option: Ralphy Velazquez, Guardians (17%) – This is a stash, but I think one we’re going to see at some point. The Guardians have done well to get something out of Nate Lowe, but Velazquez has the kind of skill set that can absolutely give them a much-needed boost down the stretch. It might take until roster expansion on Sept. 1, but Velazquez just had a three-homer game Saturday down at Triple-A and is hitting .381 with 14 homers in 16 games in August and just clearly doesn’t have anything left to learn down there. For a team very much in desperation mode for a playoff spot, there should be room for him in the lineup.
Second Base
Angel Genao, Guardians (35%)
Genao has been a nice sparkplug for the Guardians, filling in wherever needed in the infield and hitting .315/.373/.426 through his first 15 MLB games. It hasn’t been the most Fantasy-friendly skill set yet – just one steal and one homer – but he’s also making a ton of contact and putting up a 92 mph average exit velocity, so there’s a lot to like about the skill set without even factoring in the fact that he’s eligible at third and shortstop as well as second base. At the very least, he’s a great player to have around on your bench for the stretch run with that kind of flexibility, and he certainly won’t hurt you as a starter.
Deep league option: Pedro Ramirez, Cubs (13%) – Ramirez is slumping at a bad time, as it coincides with Dansby Swanson‘s injury pushing him into the full-time role we’ve been waiting for. Still, he’s eligible at the two weakest positions in Fantasy and looks like he’s going to play every day in one of the best lineups in baseball for the foreseeable future, so he’s worth taking the flier on in deeper leagues.
Third Base
Alec Bohm, Phillies (66%)
Bohm has always been a pretty boring hitter even at his best, but he has also always had the skill set to be very useful for Fantasy when he’s locked in thanks to the amount of contact he makes in the lineup he’s in. He was awful for much of the season, but he is now hitting .336 since the All-Star game, leading to 28 RBI in his past 32 games. His underlying skill set has looked a lot more stable all along than his actual production would make you think, and while he likely won’t keep hitting .340 forever, Bohm is definitely capable of running big batting averages and driving in a ton of runs for long stretches, making him a perfectly fine hot-hand play here.
Deep league option: Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks (35%) – I wasn’t sure the Diamondbacks would play Lawlar every day once he came back from the IL, but he started each of the first four games back before a breather on Saturday (he was back in on Sunday), so it looks like they’re going to keep running him out there in center field. Lawlar is still just 24 and has hit .283/.356/.434 with a 20-homer, 40-steal pace in his very small sample size of healthy games this season. I don’t think he’s actually that good, but I do still have hope that Lawlar can be a very good Fantasy option, especially in Roto leagues.
Shortstop
Kaelen Culpepper, Twins (32%)
There’s been some swing-and-miss in Culpepper’s game so far, which isn’t terribly surprising. Despite the 28% strikeout rate, however, he has still managed to hit .286/.340/.452 in his first 12 MLB games with a couple of homers and a very strong 90.9 mph average exit velocity. We’ll need to see him run a bit more to truly live up to his potential, but he’s showing some upside in his first taste of the majors, at least.
Deep-league option: Trevor Story, Red Sox (37%) – Expectations shouldn’t be terribly high for Story, who was having an awful season long before he underwent surgery to repair a hernia in mid-May. But he’s on the verge of returning from his injury – it could be as soon as this week, in fact! – and let’s not forget that he was a must-start Fantasy option in all formats in 2025, when he hit .263/.308/.433 with 25 homers and 31 steals. It’s not even clear if Story is going to play every day when he returns for the Red Sox, but if he can tap into even a little bit of the upside he showed last season, he could provide a huge boost down the stretch. If you have the roster spot to play with this week, why not add him and see what happens?
Outfield
Walker Jenkins, Twins (35%)
Like with Velazquez, it seems like we’re well past the point where the Twins should give him a chance. Injuries have threatened to derail Jenkins’ career as a prospect, but he has nonetheless managed to get to Triple-A as a 21-year-old and hit .298/.396/.496 – before he homered twice Sunday, his third multi-homer game in the past three weeks. He is 27 for 65 with 10 extra-base hits in 16 August games, with 10 walks to 12 strikeouts, and he’s even thrown in five steals for good measure. There clearly isn’t much left for him to learn down there, and while the Twins don’t necessarily have any obvious holes in the outfield, Trevor Larnach isn’t so essential that they couldn’t push him to the side to give a talented youngster a chance during a playoff race where they need to prioritize upside to make up lost ground. Jenkins has an advanced approach at the plate and could be a Fantasy difference-maker if this power breakout is for real. I suspect we’ll see him in the next week or so.
The Rockies are mostly treating Veen as a platoon bat right now, which is disappointing but not entirely surprising given how crowded things have been for them in the outfield. He’s not helping his case by striking out nearly 45% of the time so far, but he has managed to be productive in spite of that and remains a young talent worth betting on in deeper leagues.
Smith is about to finish his second full season in the majors and he isn’t yet 24, which is to say, he almost certainly isn’t a finished product. It’s been a disappointing and frustrating first two seasons, to be sure, but there have also been bright spots amid the frustration, especially lately. Smith is starting to elevate the ball a bit more consistently lately, bumping his flyball rate to 41% so far in August, leading to four homers in 18 games entering play Sunday, notably without an increase in his strikeout rate. Smith has long had all of the physical tools, but he hasn’t optimized his swing to take advantage of that. What if he’s starting to? Given the upside inherent to a guy with some of the best bat speed in the majors, why not add him and see if he’s starting to figure it out? Especially when the underlying data has been better than his actual production all season? There’s something here.
Griffin Conine, Marlins (36%)
The Marlins are giving Conine a longer leash lately and he isn’t looking overwhelmed. I mean, sure, you could point to his 31% strikeout rate in the month of August and make the case, but that’s a pretty typical mark for Conine, so we’ll take it during one of the first stretches of his career where he’s starting to face lefties a little more often (starting three of five against lefties in August). The Marlins are set to face four lefties this week, so don’t be shocked if he sits at least once or twice, but I’d guess he also starts at least two of those games, and his power could make up for sitting out a couple.
Luis Robert, Mets (64%)
Robert has been pretty hit-or-miss since coming back from the IL, with his seven homers in 27 games standing in pretty stark contrast to his .266 OBP in that time. That all-or-nothing approach makes him a tough fit in points leagues, and the lack of stolen bases limits his utility in Roto, too. But the power has been impactful enough to bet on, even if he isn’t the star he once was.
Starting Pitcher
Jacob Lopez, Athletics (40%)
Fantasy players aren’t rushing out to add Lopez, but they probably should be. Remember, he had a long stretch last season where he looked like a must-start pitcher before suffering an elbow injury, and he’s looked a lot like that version of himself lately. He has at least eight strikeouts in three of his past five starts, with 37 strikeouts to just seven walks and a 2.76 ERA in that stretch. He pitches for a bad team in a tough home ballpark, but Lopez has shown the ability to both miss bats and limit hard contact despite a sky-high flyball rate, and I don’t think his success is a fluke. There might be a relatively slim margin for error – he succeeds more on funk than pure velocity or stuff – but when he’s locked in, Lopez gives hitters fits, and he’s very locked in right now.
George Klassen, Angels (20%)
I know people are pretty excited about Klassen, but I’m gonna be honest: I don’t really see it. I’m not saying he’s bad, let alone useless, but I’m not sure I buy him as someone who is going to be worth trusting moving forward. He found more success in Triple-A than his 3.96 ERA would make you think – league average in the PCL is 5.50, mind you – and he does come to the table with a legit fastball/slider combo, so he has the stuff to succeed in the majors. But he’s also never really thrown strikes at an acceptable rate, so the four walks in 13 innings over his last two starts are going to be tough to replicate. But the stuff is good enough to at least be worth a look to see if he can keep it going, especially with a two-start week coming up in Week 23.
Grayson Rodriguez, Angels (26%)
I don’t have a ton of faith in either Angels pitcher, if we’re being honest, but I think Rodriguez is about as interesting as Klassen. We’ve seen a couple of good starts from him lately, most recently Thursday’s against the Astros, when he struck out six over seven innings while allowing just two unearned runs, and he’s now down to a 3.27 ERA with 25 strikeouts to nine walks in 22 innings in four August starts, and his final start of July was pretty good, too. Rodriguez’s fastball has played down for much of the season, but it’s been a lot more effective when paired with his changeup lately, and while you’d like to see another pitch step up and prove more reliable for him, right now, it’s been good enough.
Tyler Mahle, Braves (68%)
Sometimes, baseball is simple. Sometimes you go to a new team and they just tell you, “Hey, why don’t you throw your best pitch a whole bunch more?” and then you do it, and then you start pitching a lot better. Mahle has thrown his splitter 38% of the time since getting to the Braves, up from 25% with the Giants, and he’s seen a massive spike in his strikeout rate (to 28%) and arguably the best stretch of his season as a result. He isn’t a true-talent sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, obviously – his 4.80 xERA should give ample reason for skepticism – but Mahle has had stretches like this before, including most of 2025, so why not just keep riding it until the wheels come off?
Joe Musgrove, Padres (43%)
Musgrove is close to returning, though after he was tagged for five runs in his most recent rehab start, it sounds like the Padres are going to send him out on one more start in the minors before he returns. He hasn’t pitched in the majors in 23 months and has had a bumpy road back from Tommy John surgery, but his fastball velocity during his rehab stint has been up to 95 mph, higher than any season in his MLB career, so I’m very interested to see what Musgrove looks like when he finally makes his return. He could make a real impact down the stretch.
Relief Pitcher
Kodai Senga, Mets (39%)
The Mets gave Senga a real test Sunday, asking him to pitch in back-to-back games for the first time … and he gave up a game-winning homer to Tristan Peters to cost the Mets the game. That’s a bummer, and it’s fair to wonder if his faltering in his first time trying to pitch on consecutive games might lose him some of the faith he has earned lately. On the other hand, Senga has still allowed just two runs in 7.1 innings since moving to a full-time bullpen role, while striking out nine amid a velocity spike, so I think he’s earned a longer leash than this. We’ll see how he responds to this, but I’d bet on Senga’s next appearance coming in a save situation – albeit probably after a few days of rest.
Nate Pearson, Royals (3%)
The Royals have been searching for an answer in the ninth inning basically ever since Carlos Estevez‘s velocity was way down during the spring, and Pearson is the latest arm to get a try, with two of the team’s past four saves, including one Friday this weekend. Steven Cruz was lined up to pitch the ninth in a save situation before the Royals scored twice in the ninth Sunday, so I don’t think we can just declare that Pearson is the Royals closer now or anything. But he’s in the mix and he might be as talented as anyone in the bullpen if he can stay healthy and throw strikes. Pearson is a bit of a long shot to make a difference, but if Cruz falters, Pearson definitely looks like he’ll get a shot.
